March 2, 2024 – The National Park Service (NPS) is predicting peak 2024 bloom to occur from March 23 to 26.

March 6, 2023 – The National Park Service is predicting peak bloom for 2023 to occur from March 22 to 25 so make travel plans now to see one of the most beautiful displays of Mother Nature anywhere!

March 12, 2021 – Yesterday the National Park Service (NPS) posted its annual prediction for peak bloom for thousands of cherry trees lining the Tidal Basin in the nation’s capital. National Park Service (NPS) horticulturists look for green buds to form first from which they make their prediction. For the 2021 Bloom, peak blossoms are predicted to occur from April 2-5, which is highly dependent on weather. Mother Nature has the final say.

Horticulturists and meteorologists depend on each other at this time of year. Weather is the most critical factor in determining when buds on many different types of trees will appear. Entire industries depend on spring buds opening at the right time.

In 2012, Mother Nature did confound orchard owners in northern Michigan who grow most of the nation’s supply of sour cherries. A period of abnormally warm weather in late March was followed by days of frost in April. Cherry buds had begun to appear only to be frozen and fall off the trees. The sour cherry crop was devastated. Yields were so low that cherries had to be imported to meet demand.

The cherry trees in Washington are ornamental trees and do not grow edible cherries. But the economy also depends on these cherry trees because their peak season attracts thousands of visitors. It’s one time  planning a trip at the last minute is a good idea.

According to NPS, accurate predictions cannot be made more than 10 days in advance for peak bloom. A severe thunderstorm with high winds can wreak havoc on blossoms. In a matter of hours, blossoms can blow off trees leaving trees barren. Once buds emerge, it’s game on and there is no going back. In 2017, about one-half of the cherry blossoms were lost because of a late frost from March 14-16, a significant impact.

The NPS posts pictures as soon as buds appear. There are six stages before a blossom is considered open. Those are: 1) green buds, 2) florets visible, 3) extension of florets, 4) peduncle elongation, 5) Puffy White, and 6) Peak Bloom, the day when 70 percent of the Yoshino Cherry blossoms are open.

Six Stages of Cherry Blossoms (Graphic by the National Park Service)

Match that data with weather forecasts and visitors have a good chance of seeing one of the most beautiful landscapes in America.

The blooms will last for several days as long as weather permits.  

Looking at historical data is interesting but not a predictor. Dates of peak bloom vary widely from year to year.

Cherry Blossom Historical Data

2022: Green Buds: March 3    Peak Blossos: March 21

2021: Green Buds: March 11   Peak Blossoms: March 28

2020: Green Buds: Feb. 28         Peak blossoms: March 20

2019: Green Buds: March 5        Peak bossoms: April 1

2018: Green Buds: Feb. 25         Peak blossoms: April 5
2017: Green Buds: Feb. 24         Peak blossoms: March 25 (one-half of the blossoms lost 10 days earlier from frost)
2016: Green Buds: March 8        Peak blossoms: March 25
2015: Green Buds: March 18      Peak blossoms: April 10
 

Cherry Tree History

In 1885, Eliza Scidmore, a journalist and world traveler, proposed planting cherry trees from Japan in the nation’s capital. She repeatedly asked an official with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) who was in charge of buildings and grounds. But he was not interested.

She continued to write to USDA officials for 24 years to advocate for the trees. In 1909, Eliza wrote to first lady Helen Taft. Helen had been to Japan. She knew of and admired the cherry trees. The first 2,000 trees were sent from Japan to the United States but were infested with insects. In 1910, all of the trees were burned to prevent healthy trees from becoming infested.

In 1912, Japan sent 3,020 new trees with 1,800 of them the Yoshino variety. In a ceremony at the Tidal Basin, Helen Taft planted two cherry trees on the northern banks. This time the trees flourished. In 1935, the Cherry Blossom Festival was held for the first time to celebrate the beautiful blossoms. The festival had to be canceled because of the pandemic but no doubt it will return in 2022. Thousands of people travel to Washington D.C. for the springtime ritual.

Keep one eye on NPS reports and one eye on weather forecasts. The two are sure to match!

UPDATE (April 5, 2021): According to the National Park Service (NPS), peak bloom occurred on March 28, 2021.

REVIEW QUESTIONS

1. When does peak bloom occur?

2. What is a horticulturist?

3. When were the first cherry trees from Japan planted around the Tidal Basin?

INQUIRY QUESTIONS

1. What percent of the trees that Japan sent in 1912 were the Yoshino variety?

2. What factor affects the timing of peak blossom more than any other factor?

3. How do the cherry trees help the District of Columbia every spring?

4. Why was Eliza Scidmore a ‘force of nature?’

5. Study the picture of the cherry branch in the story. How many stages can you identify?