Aug. 28, 2021 – The message from the National Weather Service (NWS) today is reminiscent of the message the agency delivered to the public 16 years before Hurricane Katrina made landfall on Aug. 29, 2005 near New Orleans. Hurricane Ida is currently in the Gulf of Mexico with a forecast to make landfall tomorrow near or at New Orleans.

According to the NWS, Hurricane Katrina was the most costly natural disaster ever to strike the United States with estimates of damage at $125 billion. Most important, the human toll was impossible to calculate. About 1,800 people died and more than 250,000 people were displaced.

As Katrina churned through the Gulf of Mexico, the storm strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane and then made two landfalls as a strong Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 127 miles per hour (mph). The first landfall was in southeast Louisiana on Aug. 29, 2005 and the second landfall occurred at the mouth of the Pearl River in Hancock County, Mississippi on the same day. By Aug. 31, 2005, at least 80 percent of New Orleans was under flood waters. Due to the storm surge, levees protecting the city, which is eight feet below sea level, broke.

All of the repairs and new construction since 2005 will be tested tomorrow when Hurricane Ida is expected to make landfall, possibly near New Orleans.

In its bulletin issued at 10 a.m. CDT today, the NWS stated: “Ida expected to being rapidly intensifying soon..Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion today in the warning area along the northern Gulf Coast.”

As of 10 a.m. CDT, the center of Hurricane Ida was located at 24.8N, 86.1W, about 350 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds were recorded at 85 mph so the hurricane is currently a Category 1 hurricane. Its minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).

RAINFALL
In regards to rainfall and direction of Hurricane Ida, the NWS stated the following in its 10 a.m. bulletin:

Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the Louisiana coast Sunday morning, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley later Sunday into Monday. Total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life-threatening flash and urban flooding impacts and significant riverine flooding impacts.

Forecast

Ida is forecast to turn northeast later Monday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible from northeastern Louisiana and central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to result in considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts.

Check back for updates.

UPDATE 1 (Aug. 28, 2021)

UPDATE 1: Aug. 28, 2021 (3 p.m. EST) – In its 1 p.m. CDT bulletin, the NWS reported that Hurricane Ida is intensifying with maximum sustained winds at 100 mph. Its location was 25.5N, 86.6W, about 290 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Its minimum central pressure was reported as 976 mb (28.82 inches).

UPDATE 2: Aug. 28, 2021 (9 p.m. EST) – In its 8 p.m. EST bulletin, the NWS stated: “Ida forecast to strengthen rapidly before landfall…Life-threatening storm surge, potentially catastrophic wind damage, and flooding – rainfall expected to impact the northern Gulf Coast beginning Sunday morning…”  Hurricane Ida was located at 26.6N, 87.5W, about 200 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds were 105 mph and its minimum central pressure was 969 mb (28.61 inches).

UPDATE 3: Aug. 29, 2021 (8:15 a.m. EST) – In its 8 a.m. EST bulletin, the NWS stated: “Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds reaching the coast of southeastern Louoisiana…extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane Ida expected to make landfall in southeastern Louisiana in the next few hours…” The center of Hurricane Ida was located at 28.5N, 89.6W, about 50 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds were 150 mph (Category 4) and the minimum central pressure was 933 mb (27.55 inches). Landfall is expected today, most likely west of New Orleans.

UPDATE 4: Aug. 29, 2021 (11:30 a.m. EST) – In its 11 a.m. EST buletin, the NWS stated: “Eye of extremely dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Ida nearing the southeastern coast of Louisiana…Catastrophic storm surge and Hurricane-force winds onshore..” Its location (eye of the hurricane) was noted as 28.8N, 90.0W,about 60 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River and about 85 miles south of New Orleans. Maximum sustained winds were recorded at 150 mph (a strong Category 4 hurricane) and its minimum central pressure was 933 mb (27.55 inches).

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UPDATE 5: Aug. 29, 2021 (5:45 p.m. EST) – In its 5 p.m. EST bulletin, the NWS stated: “Ida moving northwestward over southeastern Louisiana…Catastrophic storm surge, extreme winds, and flash flooding continues in portions of southeastern Louisiana…” The eye of the hurricane was located at 29.5N, 90.6W, about 45 miles southwest of New Orleans and 70 miles south-southeast of Baton Rouge, Louisiana with maximum sustained winds at 130 mph. Its minimum central pressure was 938 mb (27.70 inches).

UPDATE 6: Aug. 30, 2021 (8:15 a.m. EST) – Hurricane Ida has been downgraded to a tropical storm. In its 8 a.m. eST bulletin, the NWS stated: “Ida moving northward over southwestern Mississippi…Dangerous stom surge and flash flooding continues over portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippiand southern Alabama…” The storm’s location was 31.5N, 90.8W, about 65 miles south-southwest of Jackson, Mississippi with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Its minimum central pressure was 993 mb (29.32 inches). The City of New Orleans reported last night that all eight power transmission lines into the city are out of service. It is estimated one million people are without power.

RAINFALL FORECAST

UPDATE 7: Aug. 31, 2021 (11 a.m. EST): Estimates of damage are still being developed but residents are being told to prepare for long term power outages that may last up to three weeks. On Aug. 30, 2021, the U.S. Coast Guard flew over the area to assess damage and to identify hazards. The photo below is a flight near Galliano, Louisiana.

UPDATE 8: Sept. 2, 2021 (10:15 a.m. EDT) – The good news coming out of New Orleans is that the levees built after Hurricane Katrina held. In a bulletin the NWS issued at 3:52 a.m. EDT, Ida is now a post-tropical cyclone. As the storm moved to the northeast after making landfall in Louisiana onn Sunday, it caused heavy rainfall and severe flooding on Wednesday in Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Connecticut, New Jersey and New York. Fatalities have been reported. The NWS reported today that the flooding threat will slowly end as the storm continues moving to the northeeast today. By tonight, the storm will be in Canada. On Wednesday, the U.S. Coast Guard rescued three boaters who ran aground in their sailboat in Virginia’s Chincoteague Inlet due to the storm.

“This afternoon’s rescue could not have been possible without the coordination of several Coast Guard units,” Chief Petty Officer Ross Comstock, Officer in Charge of Station Chincoteague, said in a press release. “While we were fortunate that the boat stayed together long enough to effect the rescue, the distressed mariners were prepared with life jackets, which most certainly helped the rescue swimmer to get them from the boat to the helicopter safely.”

REVIEW QUESTIONS

1. When and where did Hurricane Katrina make landfall?

2. How many people were killed and displaced as a direct result of Hurricane Katrina?

3. Why was New Orleans so severely flooded after the storm?

INQUIRY QUESTIONS

1. How is Hurricane Ida similar to Hurricane Katrina?

2. Do you think people in New Orleans are heeding the warnings from the National Weather Service?

3. From weather data in the story, what data indicates Hurricane Ida is getting stronger?